A multi-model view of BTC/USD that separates the long-term power-law anchor, current market regime, risk distribution, and forecast governance into one decision-ready report.
Price prediction pages usually compress uncertainty into a single number. This report keeps the power-law anchor, live data provenance, Monte Carlo distribution, and backtest gates visible.
What this means: This is the blended valuation read across Bitcoin's long-term growth trend, current risk levels, and network fundamentals. It is a context signal, not a standalone trade instruction.
What this means: This measures market emotions on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). When investors are extremely fearful, it may signal a buying opportunity. When everyone is greedy, it might be time to be cautious. Markets often swing back to the middle after reaching extremes.
These are the most important numbers to understand Bitcoin's current market condition. Think of these as your "dashboard" for making investment decisions.
Overall attractiveness score from 0 to 1. Above 0.7 = bullish, below 0.3 = bearish.
Is Bitcoin trending up (bull), down (bear), or moving sideways? This helps you choose your strategy.
Bitcoin historically moves in ~4-year cycles. Knowing where we are helps set expectations.
Price vs. 200-day average. Below 0.8 = potential buy zone, above 2.4 = potentially overheated.
Like a P/E ratio for Bitcoin. High values suggest price may be ahead of actual usage.
How much the price swings in a year. Higher = more risk, but also more opportunity.
Understanding where Bitcoin's price has been and how it compares to its long-term growth pattern. These charts help you see if we're in a cheap or expensive period.
The long-term anchor is shown as a log-log power-law trend, with residual bands around the trend so BTC's current location is visible as a distribution, not just a line.
What you're seeing: Full available BTC price history on a log scale, the power-law trend, and residual context bands. The 68% band approximates one historical residual sigma; the wider band approximates two sigma. Price outside the center range deserves extra risk review.
Data window: 2018-08-23 to 2026-05-18. Bands are descriptive context, not guaranteed support or resistance.
What you're seeing: This shows how far Bitcoin has fallen from its highest price ever. For example, -50% means Bitcoin is half the price of its peak. Bigger drawdowns often represent better buying opportunities, but also indicate higher risk. Bitcoin has historically recovered from all drawdowns, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
Historical context: Bitcoin has experienced multiple 70%+ drawdowns in its history, but has always eventually reached new all-time highs.
Different ways to determine if Bitcoin is cheap or expensive right now. These models have historically identified good buying and selling zones.
What you're seeing: This compares today's price to the average price over the last 200 days. It's like comparing today's temperature to the average for this time of year. Values below 0.8 have historically been good times to buy (green zone), while values above 2.4 have often preceded price corrections (red zone).
● Buy Zone (<0.8): Historically good accumulation opportunities ● Sell Zone (>2.4): Historically preceded corrections
What you're seeing: This measures how far Bitcoin's price has deviated from its long-term growth trend, similar to how we might measure if someone's height is unusual compared to the average. Scores above +2.0 suggest Bitcoin is expensive relative to its historical pattern, while scores below -1.0 suggest it's cheap. Think of this as a "temperature gauge" for Bitcoin's valuation.
How to read this: The further the line is from zero, the more extreme the valuation. Positive numbers mean potentially overvalued, negative numbers mean potentially undervalued.
Understanding potential risks and what the future might hold. These tools help you decide how much to invest and what outcomes to expect.
What you're seeing: How much Bitcoin's price has been jumping around recently. High volatility means bigger daily price swings (more risk, but also more opportunity). Low volatility means calmer, more stable price movements. Most investors prefer to buy during low volatility periods.
Professional risk measurements that help you understand potential losses and returns. These numbers help you decide how much of your portfolio should be in Bitcoin.
Maximum expected loss over 10 days (99% confidence). Lower is less risky.
Average loss beyond VaR over 10 days. Shows tail risk severity.
Return per unit of downside risk. Higher is better. Above 1.0 is good.
Probability-weighted gains vs losses. Above 1.0 means gains outweigh losses.
What this means: How confident we are in our forecasts and what kind of risk environment we're in. High confidence means our models are reliable. Risk posture tells you whether to be aggressive or defensive with your portfolio.
How reliable our predictions are based on historical accuracy.
Suggested approach: Aggressive (more risk), Balanced, or Defensive (less risk).
What this means: Real-time data about Bitcoin network activity. The mempool is like a waiting room for transactions. When it's crowded, fees go up. This helps you understand current network demand and can be a proxy for market interest in Bitcoin. (Data from local node)
3,158 pending transactions waiting to be confirmed
Pay this for quick confirmation. Lower in 30m: 1 sat/vB · 60m: 1 sat/vB
Middle fee rate. Range of fees: 150.13 sat/vB
Mining difficulty expected change: -0.88%
History window: 1462 days (2022-05-18 → 2026-05-18).
Mempool stats source: fallback (4y).
LSTM training window (overlap only): 2825 days (2018-08-23 → 2026-05-17).
What this means: This monitors how accurate our AI predictions have been recently. Think of it like a report card for the model. If accuracy drops, we may need to retrain it with newer data. This helps ensure you're getting reliable forecasts.
1.5% of price
What this means: This summarizes how the neural network was run, what evidence supports it, and which model controls are active.
8 ensemble seed(s)
A100 worker pool up to 6; runner cpu; remote call 7.4 min
No-touch holdout evaluated: 2025-05-23 to 2025-11-18
0 dropped; 8 clipped by train-only bounds
What you're seeing: This shows 100,000 possible price scenarios for the next 180 days based on Bitcoin's historical behavior. The dark blue center line is the median outcome. The shaded areas show where the simulated price paths cluster:
• Darker blue area: 50% chance price will be in this range (25th-75th percentile)
• Lighter blue area: 90% chance price will be in this range (5th-95th percentile)
This is like a weather forecast - it shows a range of possibilities, not a single prediction.
Remember: These are probabilities, not certainties. Use this to set realistic expectations and plan for multiple outcomes.
What you're seeing: This is a time-series forecast model (developed by Meta/Facebook) that identifies patterns and trends in Bitcoin's price history. The darker line shows the expected path, while the shaded area shows the uncertainty range. This model is best for understanding general trends rather than precise price targets.
What you're seeing: This uses artificial intelligence (specifically, an LSTM neural network) trained on Bitcoin's price patterns and network data. The AI learns from history to predict short-term price movements. The shaded area represents the confidence range - wider bands mean more uncertainty. This works best for near-term predictions (days to weeks) rather than long-term forecasts.
Note: Holdout intervals are over-conservative (very high coverage with wide ranges) for 60d, 90d, 120d, 150d, 180d. Treat these horizons as scenario planning only, not precise targets.
What you're seeing: Instead of relying on just one prediction method, this combines multiple models (AI, statistical, and simple baselines) weighted by their recent accuracy. It's like getting a second opinion from several doctors and averaging their diagnoses based on their track records. The current market regime (Sideways (Medium Volatility)) influences which models get more weight.
Orange line: The combined prediction · Dashed lines: Individual model predictions for comparison
Note: The dashed LSTM Daily Path (component) is the day-by-day simulation path used in blending; it may differ from the decision-horizon medians shown in the LSTM card.
Ensemble share
Ensemble share
Ensemble share
What this means: This shows how accurate each prediction model has been in recent history by testing them on real past data (36 tests from 2025-03-13 to 2025-11-13). Lower error numbers mean better accuracy.
How to read this table:
• MAE/RMSE: Average dollar error - lower is better (shows typical prediction accuracy)
• MAPE: Error as a percentage of price - lower is better
• PICP 95%: How often actual price fell within prediction range - closer to 95% is better
• Width %: How wide the prediction range is relative to price - narrower is more precise
| Model | Horizon | Obs | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | PICP 95% | Width % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAIVE | 7d | 36 | $3,904 | $4,964 | 3.7% | N/A | N/A |
| NAIVE | 30d | 36 | $8,733 | $10,829 | 8.6% | N/A | N/A |
| NAIVE | 90d | 36 | $18,280 | $20,610 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A |
| NAIVE | 180d | 36 | $29,939 | $32,484 | 36.6% | N/A | N/A |
| LOG_GROWTH | 7d | 36 | $17,010 | $18,945 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A |
| LOG_GROWTH | 30d | 36 | $17,771 | $19,151 | 16.5% | N/A | N/A |
| LOG_GROWTH | 90d | 36 | $19,970 | $21,723 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A |
| LOG_GROWTH | 180d | 36 | $26,034 | $29,247 | 32.4% | N/A | N/A |
| PROPHET | 7d | 36 | $12,789 | $16,593 | 13.1% | 61.1% | 26.6% |
| PROPHET | 30d | 36 | $14,701 | $20,619 | 15.3% | 69.4% | 29.9% |
| PROPHET | 90d | 36 | $25,689 | $34,250 | 28.6% | 58.3% | 64.7% |
| PROPHET | 180d | 36 | $53,162 | $63,426 | 69.0% | 69.4% | 312.2% |
What this means: This tests our current AI model on recent data to see how well it performs without being retrained. This tells you how reliable the AI predictions are right now with the model version we're using today.
Origins: 26 · Stride: 7 · Paths/origin: 500 · 2025-05-23 → 2025-11-14
Method: Direct horizon head (frozen walk-forward)
| Model | Horizon | Obs | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | PICP 95% | Width % | CRPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTM (FROZEN DIRECT) | 7d | 26 | $4,323 | $5,710 | 4.0% | 100.0% | 38.5% | $3,391 |
| LSTM (FROZEN DIRECT) | 30d | 26 | $9,577 | $11,461 | 9.2% | 100.0% | 95.9% | $7,038 |
| LSTM (FROZEN DIRECT) | 90d | 26 | $24,527 | $28,200 | 27.3% | 96.2% | 107.1% | $17,974 |
| LSTM (FROZEN DIRECT) | 180d | 26 | $60,726 | $62,351 | 78.5% | 100.0% | 364.0% | $45,190 |
What this means: This checks whether our AI's confidence ranges are properly calibrated. When the AI says "95% confident the price will be in this range," this verifies that the price actually falls in that range 95% of the time. Well-calibrated ranges help you trust the uncertainty estimates.
Calibrated vs Raw: Calibrated coverage is after interval scaling (targeting 95%). Raw coverage shows pre-calibration behavior.
Origins: 80 · Stride: 5 · Paths/origin: 1000
| Model | Horizon | Obs | MAE (med) | PICP 95% (Cal) | PICP 95% (Raw) | Width % | CRPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTM | 7d | 80 | $2,237 | 95.0% | 85.0% | 21.7% | $1,662 |
| LSTM | 30d | 80 | $5,483 | 95.0% | 87.5% | 47.4% | $4,022 |
| LSTM | 90d | 80 | $12,795 | 95.0% | 65.0% | 81.1% | $10,013 |
| LSTM | 180d | 80 | $20,058 | 95.0% | 77.5% | 110.0% | $14,596 |
What this means: Here's what all the data above tells us in plain English. These are the most important things to know right now for making investment decisions. Read these carefully - they're written specifically to help you understand what to do next.
This Report is Educational Only - Not Financial Advice
This analysis is provided for learning and research purposes. We are not financial advisors, and nothing in this report should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin.
What you should know:
By using this report, you acknowledge that you understand these risks and that all investment decisions are your sole responsibility.